How four years of economic pressure created new habits, new expectations, and a new definition of value.
I think marketers might be looking at the wrong thing.
Everyone is watching the recovery numbers while consumers have spent the last few years quietly retraining themselves on how to buy.
I’ve been digging into some of the latest New Zealand consumer research, and there are some fascinating signals emerging. TRA’s work with Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission found that 56% of New Zealanders describe themselves as financially uncomfortable. Another finding showed 76% would rather save for a major purchase than take on debt, while 83% say they carefully consider purchases before making them.
The statistics aren’t actually the interesting bit.
What interests me is what happens when half the country spends three or four years thinking differently about money. That’s long enough to change habits. Long enough to challenge assumptions. Long enough to create new rules for how people make decisions.
I don’t think we’re talking about temporary behaviour changes anymore.
I think we’re looking at a permanent shift in how people assess value.
I’ve noticed it in myself.
Like most people, the last few years have made me much more conscious of where money goes. I know exactly where to get the best meat, who has the best value produce, what makes sense to buy online and what I should grab from Pak’nSave. What’s interesting is that I don’t see any of that as a compromise. A few years ago I probably would have. Today it just feels like common sense. More than that, it feels like a better decision.
That got me thinking about other parts of my life. I’ve been a Land Rover fan for years. My old Range Rover Sport is basically part of the family. What has surprised me recently is finding myself looking at brands like Denza and GWM. A few years ago I wouldn’t have even considered them. Now I find myself thinking they’re actually pretty impressive. Once you start looking properly, some of the assumptions you’ve held for years start to get challenged.
AI feels similar. Very few people woke up one morning desperate to start using AI. Most started experimenting because they were busy, under pressure, and looking for ways to do more with the same resources. I’ve owned a business for 16 years and can see exactly why it’s taken off. What started as necessity quickly became habit because people realised it worked. We’re not going back from that.
The more I think about all of this, the more I wonder if we’re misreading what has happened over the last few years.
What if the recession didn’t reduce status seeking?
What if it changed what status looks like?
For a long time, status was closely linked to spending. The premium brand. The expensive car. The recognised badge. The assumption that paying more said something positive about you.
I’m not sure that’s where we are anymore.
What I’m seeing is that people increasingly get satisfaction from making better decisions.
Take KiwiSaver. Five years ago most people couldn’t tell you much about the fund they were in. Today there are plenty of people who can. They’re looking at fees, performance and returns. Not because they’ve suddenly become financial experts. They just want their money working harder.
The same thing is happening across almost every category. People are questioning subscriptions they’ve had for years, looking differently at insurance, comparing providers and taking a harder look at where value actually sits. What’s fascinating is how quickly that way of thinking spreads. Someone starts by looking for a better grocery deal and before long they’re reviewing KiwiSaver, considering a different vehicle or trying a technology they would have ignored a few years ago.
The individual decisions aren’t really the story.
The mindset is.
What stands out isn’t the saving itself. It’s the feeling that comes with it. The feeling that you’ve made a good call, got better value than you expected, and made your money work harder. We all like feeling like we’re winning and, when times are tougher and money is tighter, those wins become surprisingly important.
McKinsey describes the emergence of the “resourceful consumer”, while NielsenIQ is seeing consumers become increasingly intentional in how they spend. Different language perhaps, but I think they’re observing the same thing. People have become much better at evaluating value and much less willing to pay for something simply because they’ve always paid for it.
That’s why I don’t think the 2021 consumer is coming back.
Several years of financial pressure have created new habits, new expectations and new definitions of value. The cost-of-living crisis has effectively become one giant trial programme. People have tried brands, products, technologies and ways of doing things they might never have considered before. Some of those experiences challenged assumptions they had carried for years. Once that happens, it’s very difficult to go backwards.
These days I find myself asking a different question. It’s not whether I can afford something. It’s whether it’s actually worth it.
Those are two very different things.
I suspect many consumers are doing exactly the same.
That’s a much tougher environment for brands than the one we were operating in five years ago. It’s also a huge opportunity. The brands that do well over the next few years won’t be the ones waiting for consumers to return to old behaviours. They’ll be the ones that understand how consumers have changed while everyone else was busy watching the economy.
The economy will recover.
I’m just not convinced the old consumer comes back with it.
And if that’s true, then the next question becomes even more important. If consumers have spent the last few years questioning old assumptions, trying new options and redefining what value means, what does that do to loyalty?
That’s where I think the next shift begins.