It’s one of the questions I get asked the most:
“When will the job market turn the corner?”
The truth? It’s been a long stretch of caution, hiring freezes, and headcount holds. But finally, finally, there are signs of life. The latest SEEK numbers show a modest but meaningful lift in job ad volumes. And for the first time in a long while, I’m feeling cautiously optimistic.
Let’s break it down.
The lay of the land
To put it in perspective: job ad volumes have been trending down since late 2022. MBIE’s Jobs Online data tracked quarter after quarter of decline through 2023 and early 2024. It was a slog. But the good news is, that downward momentum is easing.
SEEK is now reporting four consecutive monthly increases in job adverts, and the longest period of sustained growth in over three years. After increasing for the first time since November 2022, annual growth is now at 6%. Yes, it’s off a low base, but it’s good to see the dial nudging back into positive territory.
In SEEK’s own words: “While ad volumes are still low compared to historical averages, the past four months of growth demonstrates positive momentum in the market.”
Even Stats NZ’s Employment Indicators show a gentle nudge upwards. Filled jobs ticked up slightly between June and August this year. Still soft overall, but it suggests we’ve hit the floor, and we’re not sliding further.
Put all of this together and a clear message emerges:
The job market isn’t booming, but it’s no longer in freefall either.
What I’m seeing at Campfire
In the digital marketing, e-commerce, media, and creative space, the green shoots are there, though it’s still a mixed bag.
Agencies have led the way. After a quiet 2024, many started cautiously hiring again in early 2025, mainly to replace leavers. Now, a few are starting to build for future growth, planning ahead for 2026.
Brand-side hiring is still tight. Most teams are lean, and while marketing leaders want to grow, budget constraints are real. That said, there’s a subtle shift in narrative. I’m seeing senior marketers push harder to reframe marketing as a growth driver, not a cost centre, something Westpac’s CMO Sarah Williams nailed recently in the NZ Herald:
“We definitely need to be seen as a growth engine and not a cost line.”
If more boardrooms get on board with that mindset, it opens the door for real investment in teams again.
Burnout, however, remains a theme. Teams have been running lean for too long. One resignation can send the whole setup wobbling. That’s where contract roles are proving invaluable, offering flexibility for businesses and breathing room for candidates.
Intermediate-level talent is still the most in-demand, those hands-on, revenue-generating roles in performance marketing, content, design, and media. And interestingly? SEO is making a comeback. I suspect it’s tied to the rise of AI and uncertainty around how brands appear in AI-powered search. Either way, demand for solid SEO talent is rising.
The mood? Cautious optimism.
Most hiring managers and business leaders I speak with are quietly hopeful about 2026. Nobody’s expecting a dramatic rebound, but a careful, steady climb? That feels realistic. And honestly, after the last two years, that’s a win.
If you’re thinking about hiring before the end of the year or want to plan for early 2026, now’s a good time to chat. Whether it’s testing the waters, exploring flexible options, or going to market confidently, the Campfire team and I are here to help.
Got a burning question about recruitment, interviews, or the job market? Ask Amelia.
Email your question to askamelia@campfirerecruitment.co.nz, and it could be featured in our next #AskAmelia blog.