Dead Metrics Walking

Attribution is broken, especially in small markets like Christchurch. Discover why traditional models no longer work, how dark social and privacy laws are changing the game, and what Kiwi marketers should measure instead.

Okay, I exaggerate. But attribution has changed, and more so for smaller markets like Christchurch and Auckland. So measuring what matters is key. And all marketers need to talk about it, out in the open.

The Death of Attribution

In a previous Resource Hub article I talked about another small market reality. Hyper optimisation and how it may actually adversely impact performance.

The subject we are talking about today is a related one. And one that further exacerbates the issue at hand. Your attribution data may be misleading! Yikes!

Many marketers are optimising for a measurement system that died somewhere between the latest iOS update and your customer's conversation at the rugby game.

The 2024 Gartner survey (and it is now dated, mind you, so the situation has only worsened since) dropped a bomb: 74% of Marketing Managers and CMOs are under pressure to prove ROI. In 2025, that number has only gotten worse. We’re noticing at Ridiculous Labs that this entire old measurement system being used is getting closer and closer to fiction.

The Christchurch Customer Journey (the ‘actual’ one)

Let me paint you a picture that every Christchurch marketer knows but few talk openly about:

Wednesday: LinkedIn ad impression
Friday: Pub conversation ("Oh yeah, I saw something about them...")
Sunday: Quick Google (gets distracted by All Blacks highlights)
Tuesday: Facebook post reminder
Thursday: "Mate, didn't you use those guys?"
Two weeks later: Branded search → Enquiry

Your dashboard: "Google Ads: 1 conversion"

This isn't attribution. It's attribution theatre (that was a goodie, eh!).

What Has Changed

Traditional attribution models were built for a world that no longer exists. A world where:

• Cookies worked
• People used one device (fewer than now anyway)
• Customer journeys were relatively linear
• Privacy wasn't an actual concern
• ChatGPT didn't exist

That world is gone. Most marketers are aware of this reality. But like those Japanese soldiers who didn't know WWII ended, CEs and CFOs are still asking marketers to connect marketing dollars to leads using the above defunct model. This makes a marketing manager nervous – and that is bad news for the marketer and for the company.

The Four Horsemen of Attribution Apocalypse:

1. Aggressive iOS settings and privacy focused browsers - Wiped out up to 40% of user data tracking (depending on what report you refer to – we have seen up to a 30% dip in total data collected!)
2. Cookie death – GDPR and similar legislations causing further data loss
3. AI conversations - No URLs, no tracking, no dice
4. Dark social – This is a Christchurch special - 73% of deals start with "my mate said..."

The Optimisation Doom Loop (Attribution Edition)

Here's how growth is likely being killed – slowly but surely – as a result of the above:

Step 1: You track what's trackable (last-click)
Step 2: You optimise for what you track
Step 3: You cut "underperforming" channels (brand, content, social)
Step 4: Your easy-to-track channels get more expensive
Step 5: Performance declines
Step 6: You optimise harder
Step 7: Welcome to the doom loop

We love the fruits, and we tolerate the branches and the leaves. But we ignore, and cut off the trunk and the roots because we cannot see them. And suddenly there is less, then no fruit!

Every optimisation makes the next one less effective. We’re not getting better at marketing. We're getting better at measuring decline.

The ‘Ridiculous’ Christchurch Method: Attribution for Humans

We need to get over Silicon Valley 6-figure martech-stack solutions. Based on actual experiments run by Ridiculous Labs, here's what actually works when our total addressable market is smaller than a Taylor Swift concert:

If I can't explain my attribution model after two beers, it's too complicated. Our entire country has 5 million people. Your customer's cousin knows your sales manager. We need to stop pretending we're Netflix!

When everything else went dark, branded searches became the North Star. Not perfect, but honest.

Your new dashboard must include:

• Branded search impressions (Google Search Console)
• Direct traffic trends (GA)
• Returning visitors
• "How did you hear about us?" (shocking, I know. But see if you can make that part of your sales ops – also, talk to your sales people – most of them do not bite. Some bite. Avoid those ones!)

What you actually need (80% of value):

• Google Search Console
• Google Analytics
• A spreadsheet
• Your sales team's ears

What you think you need (20% of value):

• Multi-touch attribution platforms
• Customer data platforms
• Marketing automation scoring
• That $100,000 tool your international US based competitor just bought

Run brand campaign → Direct traffic increases in 2 weeks → Revenue goes up.

Is it perfect causation? No.
Does it work? Yes.
Should you care? Also no.

There is lots and lots to this playbook, but you get the general idea – you are a smart, salt-of-the-earth Kiwi marketer after all!

The CFO Conversation Script

When they ask about ROI, here's your answer:

"Traditional attribution died alongside most third party cookies and iOS. But here's what we CAN measure: brand lift through search patterns, cohort revenue trends, and geo-split tests. It's not precise, but it's more honest than the fiction I can produce if you continue to twist my arm, preventing me from doing my job.”

Okay maybe don’t say that last bit!

Then show them:

• Branded search growth
• Direct traffic correlation
• Revenue during campaign periods vs. baseline
• Cost per acquisition trends (not last-click lies)

What We All Need to be Shouting from the Rooftops

In a country where everyone knows everyone, our best attribution model might be:

• A conversation at Little High
• Feedback from the sales team
• That spike in branded searches after the display campaigns went live
• The client who said "I've been seeing you everywhere"

And that's fine.

We don't need to measure every raindrop to know it's raining.

Final Ridiculous Thoughts

Attribution as we knew it is dead. Murdered by privacy laws, buried by platform changes, cremated by AI. RIP.

But marketing isn't dead. Growth isn't dead. People are still people. And Kiwis are most definitely still Kiwis!

We as marketers need to be bold and push back. Just a wee bit. And welcome the CEs and ‘that-finance-guy’ to attribution in the real world. Where our customer's journey includes conversations we'll never be able to fully track, influences we'll never fully measure, and touchpoints that don't have pixels.

And that's exactly how it should be.

Because in Christchurch, the best attribution model is still a flat white and an honest conversation.